From the "Dark Horses" of Football Matches, and What They Tell Us
From the "Dark Horses" of Football Matches, and What They Tell Us ■ Yin Minfan, Shen Wenke
At the 2026 World Cup hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, Cape Verde—competing for the first time—successively held two world champion teams to draws, advancing to the knockout rounds with an unbeaten group-stage record that far exceeded pre-tournament expectations. In the Round of 16, Norway faced tournament favorite Brazil: striker Haaland delivered an outstanding performance, scoring twice to eliminate the opponent, sending Norway into the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time in the nation's history… On the green pitch, miracles of underdogs staging comebacks and "dark horses galloping" are staged regularly. This mismatch between paper strength and final results demonstrates that an advantage in nominal capability does not guarantee victory on the field. The phenomenon of "dark horses" defeating stronger opponents also offers us multi-dimensional insights for military struggle preparedness.
Pay attention to battlefield psychological contest. In football matches, strong teams that look down on their opponents tend to be slow to find their footing after kickoff, relax their defense after taking the lead, and grow desperate to equalize when falling behind. Weaker teams, by contrast, carry no psychological burden and often prepare more thoroughly and perform better. On the battlefield, even a side that holds an absolute numerical advantage may fail to achieve the desired results if it underestimates the enemy's will to resist before the battle and lacks the psychological readiness for extreme combat (极限作战). To address this: first, continuously strengthen the awareness of preparing for and fighting wars, recognize the latent capabilities of the weaker side, and be prepared for various extreme contingencies such as hard-fought battles of attrition and sieges. Second, use high-risk and difficult training subjects to sharpen operational skills and temper psychological resilience, comprehensively test and improve emergency response and combat readiness, and cultivate the fighting spirit of "fearing neither hardship nor death (一不怕苦、二不怕死)." Third, be skilled at disrupting the enemy's state of mind—through small-unit raids, luring the enemy deep, and similar methods—to create battlefield situational illusions in the enemy's perception and steadily erode the enemy's will to resist.
Pay attention to targeted countering. On the football pitch, strong teams are under the spotlight and most of their information is easily studied and grasped by opponents, while some players on weaker teams, due to their lower public profile and limited media coverage, create a situation in which strong teams play with "open cards" and weaker teams play with "hidden cards." If a strong team's tactics are rigid—always relying on a few key players or employing the same fixed tactics used in the past—its patterns are easily read by the opponent, who can then formulate targeted tactics to break down its system of advantages. In modern military struggle, long-standing military superiority tends to calcify thinking, leading to tactical path dependency (战术路径依赖), clinging to traditional operational models, and neglecting the role of emerging combat forces, thereby creating vulnerabilities the opponent can exploit to achieve defeat. The weaker side can achieve asymmetric counterbalancing through the employment of low-cost weapons. Therefore, in designing the operational system, one must not be one-dimensional; flexibly adopt multiple operational methods and styles of fighting; avoid tactical rigidity; continuously update operational thinking; and prevent the opponent from discerning one's operational habits. Persist in military theoretical innovation; continuously track the evolution of operational forms; proactively discard outdated methods of warfare; and avoid being overtaken on the curve by new technologies and new tactics. Pay attention to concealment and deception (隐真示假)—through feints and deception, dispersed deployment, and the use of decoy targets—to conceal one's true operational disposition and intentions, leaving the opponent unable to see through, unable to judge clearly, and unable to strike accurately.
Pay attention to internal cohesion. In football matches, some traditionally strong teams sometimes suffer from insufficient time for players to train together during squad camps, mutual recrimination during periods of poor results, and dissatisfaction over the allocation of playing time—producing dressing-room conflicts that prevent individual player ability from being effectively consolidated into overall team strength, resulting in defeat at the hands of weaker teams with stronger collective awareness and more fluid tactical coordination. Unified will and close coordinated cooperation are the key to generating combat power. Without them, even possessing advanced weapons and equipment, if conflicts arise at the command level, emotional barriers develop between officers and soldiers, and coordination among the various services and arms is fragmented, overall combat power may be severely diminished. To address this: first, strengthen the sense of the overall situation (大局意识) and the sense of the whole (整体意识), consolidate the ideological foundation, and cultivate a joint operations culture. Second, work to build a unified command system, forge a command hub for full-domain coordination, open up coordination links among the services and arms, achieve broad integration and deep fusion of operational elements, and ensure that orders are transmitted efficiently and situational awareness is aggregated in real time. Third, routinely conduct cross-unit joint exercises and training, optimize coordination procedures among units, temper joint action capabilities, continuously work to integrate all operational elements, and achieve mutual tacit understanding.
Pay attention to accidental and sudden factors. The outcome of a football match is influenced by numerous uncontrollable factors both on and off the field. Accidental factors such as fixture scheduling, personnel reductions due to red and yellow cards, and the standard of referee decisions all affect the final result. The battlefield is equally filled with "fog" and uncertainty—some generated by the opponent, some arising from one's own errors, and some coming from the external environment. At present, the dramatic expansion of the operational space and the increasing complexity of operational systems have further amplified the contingency and uncertainty of war. Properly managing unexpected problems that arise in war has become an important dimension of seizing the initiative in war. To address this: formulate multiple contingency plans for situations that may arise, maintain redundant configurations, conduct timely preventive preparations, and be capable of responding effectively when accidental and sudden factors emerge. Conduct irregular emergency drills, simulate sudden scenarios such as heavy rain and communications blackouts to train the force, and improve the capacity for improvisation at all levels. At the same time, in combat operations one must be capable not only of managing accidental problems on one's own side, but also of seizing on enemy mistakes and being adept at exploiting battlefield uncertainty to expand operational advantage.